Monday, January 26, 2009

Leadership, and mobilizing public opinion: excerpt from a letter to a mentor

I'm so glad that you were able to hear the show - talking over the phone to the radio station it was easy to forget that people other than the hosts could hear my words. In fact, the one thing that I really wish I had done a better job of during the interview is reach out to the listeners in an inclusive and inspiring way. I have been reading about group dynamics and group decision making - in particular a book called "Inside the NO" by Myrna Lewis that I highly recommend - and it has got me thinking about decision making in society as a whole. I won't go into details, but basically I have come to believe that we can't ever "win" arguments, and framing anything as a "this or that", "wrong or right" sort of debate will always result in polarizing opinions, excluding individuals, and generally creating or deepening divides, when what we all want/need is to come to a decision that acknowledges all of our values, fears, ideas, concerns etc as valid, and addresses them. So, even though I resisted somewhat, it was easy for me to jump on the "this situation sucks, and there's no reason for us not to change drastically" train, when what would have been much more powerful would have been to acknowledge the valid concerns that many people feel about a massive transformation in how our society is structured. Only by acknowledging and addressing the fears and concerns that hold us back from change can we hope to mobilize our population. Telling people that they are heartless and/or stupid if they leave their car running will only make them defensive and hostile to the opinion that you are trying to force upon them. Anyway, something for me to think about more the next time I am preparing for an interview.

This all ties right in with the question you asked me about what I call "climate-skeptics". While I had heard that people challenged the reality of climate change, I had yet to hear anything from them until this conference, when suddenly they seemed to be everywhere. Not at the conference in fact, but on the internet - all over it. Our group had quite a few media outlets pick up our story, and one of our members had a blog going in the Toronto Star throughout the conference. Checking out the posts/articles from our group, if there was ever a space to comment at the bottom, 9 times out of 10 there was a comment declaring that climate change isn't real, and citing all sorts of evidence that I never could confirm, and often the comment struck out at our group or us as individuals, painting us as radical activists that don't know a thing about science and who have no right to be at the conference in the first place.

While I can't say that I know very much about these people, and thus can't say anything about their scientific qualifications or financial incentives for their comments, I can say that if they do in fact hold some ground in the current debate about climate change, it is because their view speaks to the inevitable fear that many people feel when they contemplate a) climate change, and/or b) re-organizing our society to capture and use renewable energy. I have to use this opportunity to share with you one of my favourite quotes - I have it on the wall above my desk:

There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. For the reformer has enemies in all who profit from the old order, and only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new order, this lukewarmness arising partly from fear of their adversaries... and partly from the incredulity of mankind, who do not truly believe in anything new until they have had actual experience of it. - Niccolo Machiavelli

As you say, there is never a push for change without a pull for the status quo, regardless of how many more people would benefit from the "new order" than benefit from the old. It is a frightening thing to agree to let the world change - we have no idea what this new world will look like. And that is another thing that this movement could be more open about - we have ideas, but we do not know the details of what a massive shift in energy production would change in our country or our world. We think that we can produce more jobs this way, but we can't guarantee it. We think that people won't lose out economically, but we don't know that. We don't know exactly where we will get our food from, or how, or how much people will suffer if we raise the price of gas by X%. And the same goes for the other side of things - we can't say for certain what our world will look like 20 or 50 years from now if we do nothing to slow down climate change. We have a pretty good idea of how much warmer it will get, and can take a guess at how many species will disappear and how much the ocean levels will rise - but there are far too many unknowns and things that we don't understand about this complex organism we call Earth, to say for sure. And in that, the climate skeptics have a point. Anyone who says that climate change science is fact, is either overly keen, or unaware that no science is fact - there remain uncertainties in everything, particularly when talking about a global phenomenon. If we are to gain the power of a whole population behind this movement, we will have to be honest about the uncertainties in the science, and clear about the trends that we are seeing and what they *probably* mean. If we declare it as fact, we only fuel the fire of climate skeptics.

I saw a great CBC video about the more sinister side of climate change deniers last week - focusing on the big industry side of things, which I don't doubt exists. But the point I want to make is that they wouldn't be able to get a foothold in society's opinon unless they were tapping into fears/concerns that the climate change movement is not adequately addressing. Check out the CBC video if you get the chance - it makes me love CBC even more.
http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/denialmachine/video.html

As for falling behind if we don't move with the changing times, Obama just keeps driving that point home, making me love him more and more too:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7851038.stm
I have also heard a lot of criticism about Obama's positions and strategies, but while anybody's plans can be picked apart one way or another, I feel like having Obama in office is a dream I never dared to have. It is obvious that countless other people feel that way too. And so while I encourage criticism, as a lack of that in a democracy is not a democracy at all, I am still smitten by Obama and his actions and hope to learn a lot from his ability to inspire crowds of people.

I have just read an excerpt from Obama's stimulus package - my favourites include all the financial incentives to invest in renewable energy and make houses more energy efficient, and the tax cut for those earning less than $75,000 per year. It's a lengthy document, but worth perusing just to get a glimpse of how the US is taking concrete action right now to start the transition away from fossil fuel dependence. Can you imagine if our government were to release something so inspiring and hopeful in tomorrow's budget? Wow. That would be true leadership. We will all continue to chip away at that block, and when the time comes, our leader will appear as well.

Thank you for the continued love and inspiration that you bring to my life.

With hope and love.

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